India- possibilities galore
The progress of a nation or individual depends on actions taken at critical junctures. This criticality of time cannot be based on, as many would like to believe, one’s own vision or efforts. Extraneous episodic factors known as strokes of luck or coincidences create an ecosystem for the enterprising. If we look at Indians, they are never short of enterprise. Innovations even in rural areas keep surprising the elite. Let us see where India stands in terms of the ecosystem.
A bit of history: India’s palaces, temples and mosques carry a rich heritage of architecture. The world recognises ancient India not only for its art and literature, but also for its contribution to subjects like mathematics, astronomy and medicine. J. D. Bernal, in his 1954 book ‘Science in History’ writes, in the old world there were three centres of cultivation of knowledge, Mesopotamia (Iraq), Egypt and India.
Invaders from around the world always had an eye on India for its wealth. Before the British came and conquered the country at the fag end of the Mughal empire, India alone contributed about a quarter of world trade. The quality of Indian workmanship in textiles, shipbuilding and jewellery was so good that the British had to impose exorbitant taxes, even physical coercion like destroying the handlooms and severing the thumbs of handloom weavers to make the British mill-made textiles competitive. The Englishmen left India in a state of destitution with almost no major industry, with an acute refugee problem, its population left in hunger and ill health with its contribution to global GDP at less than 4%.
Post-independence: When India became free, many erstwhile princely states sought independence. Junagadh in the west, Hyderabad in the middle and Travancore in the south were among the larger states who raised such demand. The big question was, how long could the country retain its unity.
Seventy-five years later, India, a country with 22 official languages and great cultural diversity, still holds itself together. Moreover, it has risen to a position of respect and awe. The improvement to a much better shape was achieved in spite of intermittent wars with its neighbours. India’s GDP grew from about Rs. 2.7 lakh crores (~3% of the total global GDP) to about Rs. 150 lakh crores in the intervening years (~8% of world total), a 50-fold increase.
While its population quadrupled, India’s production of food grains grew five times. The same was the case with milk, cars, cycles… almost everything. The literacy rate too, grew from about 12% to about 75%. India is also the world’s largest milk producer.
With industrialisation and growth of its middle class, a new breed of Indians started spreading across the world. Indian technical institutes led by the IITs started gaining respect in the outer world. Indian scholars and politicians started adorning high positions in premier institutes and political organisations of the world. Not only companies like Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), IBM, Adobe or Pepsico ceded their CEO positions to accomplished Indians, the cabinets of Britain, New Zealand or Canada started getting Indian participation at critical positions.
In a recent Indo-German exchange in a German university, the German scholars mentioned that they like to work with Indians because they are friendly and handle uncertainties well. Two decades back, when Indian software firms had considerable volume of work, many sneered calling it low-tech drudgery. Undeterred, the Indian firms seized the opportunity as it came, with both hands. Now, finding the hierarchy of top order software MNCs filled with Indian faces surprises no one. The global acceptability of Indians finds its expression in quite unlikely places too. Duolingo, a popular language learning software used worldwide, has two characters in its French as well as German lessons – a turbaned sardar Vikram and his wife Preeti. Vikram is projected as a tech savvy man settled in France or Germany. The same platform is full of nice words about Indians – ‘they are friendly, they are engineers and good to work with’ etc. These anecdotes just support what we are seeing in reality, rise of Indians in the international arena.
The phenomenon is not restricted to a particular sector only. In business, India turned the table on the British, while Tata bought their iconic firm Jaguar Land Rover (JLR). Before the world’s largest statue was installed in Gujarat, Reliance built the world’s largest crude oil refinery in the state. The world’s largest steelmaking company Arcelor Mittal is also owned by a family of Indian origin.
A large part of the oilfields in the Middle-East is managed by people trained in India. Talmiz Ahmad, former Indian ambassador in Saudi Arabia, UAE and Oman etc. says that based on model of operation the Middle-East would continue to absorb both unskilled and high skilled workers from India as preferred community. He says, only in Saudi Arabia the number of Indian workers quadrupled between 1980 and 1990 (while that from Pakistan or Egypt remained static). The reason being, Indians (irrespective of their religious affiliations) are perceived as ideal workers who “are deemed to be extremely well qualified, extremely disciplined and do not involve themselves in local politics.” (sic)
Inclusivity and internal harmony: Diversity is a wealth India has been endowed with as a part of its existence, whereas, the countries like America or Canada import that element from around the globe to ensure progress (invite talented immigrants). The elite institutes where India has proven its quality are mostly central institutes. An inseparable element of their development has been the underlying spirit of inclusivity. The confluence of talents from all corners of the country lifted their standards much above the less diverse state level counterparts.
The importance of internal harmony is better appreciated by looking at where it is absent. The resource rich African states fractured by unending fight among tribes and Pakistan with endless animosity among Shia, Sunni, Ahmadiya or Baloch are such examples.
Current circumstances: World population in general and that in the developed countries in particular, are declining fast. This piece of information translates into young, skilled Indians being much sought after, not only in the Middle-East but also in the foreign shores much beyond that area. Another point of favour for the Indians is the English advantage. In today’s world 1.6 billion people speak in English. The rest, like the Japanese, the Chinese and the Germans are trying hard to pick up that language. Indians, by coincidence, can learn this tool of communication rather easily.
When the call of globalisation came, India could not export as much of its people as it would have profitably done. One hindrance was lack of skill. Most of the world was eager for skilled people, not labourers. The other reason was that the shortage of working age population abroad was not as stark as it is now.
The proportion of formally skilled workers in India is extremely low, at 4.69% of total workforce, compared to 24% in China, 52% in the US, 68% in the UK, 75% in Germany, 80% in Japan and 96% in South Korea. If the country takes a close look at its education system and tries to skill its young, the world would come knocking at its doors. About 65% of India’s current population fall in the 15-65 years’ age bracket.
Skill and education are no more as difficult to acquire as it was even in the recent past. Internet data in India is among the most affordable in the world. The country is blessed with sunlight. The government has done very well in promoting the widespread use of solar panels. I came across a heart-warming story of students in the Sundarbans placing a solar panel atop a bamboo pole and learning both the use of computer and English language on a desktop device. The wonder of the internet has brought top educators and engineers in contact with the students in the remote corners of India. This would improve further with the soon to arrive 5G technology.
Indians are still keeping 95% of their assets locked in physical assets like land and gold. However, the long spell of internal peace and stability is increasingly freeing them from the obsession of physical assets. Consequently, they are putting their money in the financial instruments like bank deposits, bonds, equities etc. freeing the market from the overdependence on foreign investors (Atmanirbhar). On the other hand, we are at a time when many countries are trying to reduce its dependence on China, a fresh flow of foreign investments may also come if the judicial processes pick up pace, internal peace prevails and workers’ productivity rises with acquisition of higher skills.
What is to be done: The combination of cheap internet (about 8 crore broadband users now which may mean at least 32 crore users), global decline in population, apprehension about China and the English advantage have created a ecosystem conducive for India to flourish. The goodwill generated by the Indians working abroad has improved their acceptability placing India on the threshold of a great future. However, the fear of a fall does not seem to go away. People have seen Sri Lanka, Pakistan (per capita income more than that of India in 1947), Afghanistan in the neighbourhood and oil rich Nigeria suffering in acute poverty and under development. Many other African countries rich in mineral resources are also facing a similar situation.
Considered in a general sense, there can be some commonality of traits among those who prosper and those who, in spite of having many factors in their favour, fail to grow. Look at the picture below.
The above figure is a schematic diagram of four curves of human progress and aspiration.
Curve R represents reality. Progress along this curve is sporadic. A period of lull follows a spike of innovation or discovery (motor car, airplane, vaccine etc.). It is better to accept this reality and keep working with hope of another breakthrough. All three other curves are figments of imagination. Curve 1a says nothing happened in the past while Curve 1b says we have suffered a great decline from our glorious past. The natural human attraction to fairy tales drags both the poor and the prosperous into believing the proponents of curves 1a and 1b. That is the reason the Germans believed that there would be unending prosperity once the Jews are eliminated, the Afghans thought that about all minorities. The Sri Lankans after subjugating the Tamils thought that they would be able strike gold by banishing chemical fertilizers. Curve N draws a best fit line of past happenings and might say it would be unending development (or doom) at the same pace as observed in the past. This keeps working in national psyche of the countries that have achieved real progress and renders them lazy and vulnerable.
A nation that places its trust on the three imaginary curves will dwell in fantasy and consequently face decline at its best and spectacular underperformance at its worst. Those who accept their position in Curve R, put their head down and continue working. Prosperity comes to the persevering.
The standard achieved in some centres of higher education has not percolated down to India’s schools and colleges in the hinterland. Understandably, the initial thrust was to generate skilled manpower to build and run large factories, dams and hospitals. That led to the creation of a narrow veneer at the top of the system of education. However, it seems India got stuck there. The follow up actions need be taken up now.
Today’s India would be in great advantage if it maintains internal peace and builds on the acceptance and progress it has seen in the past. That bit done, there would be hardly any parallel to India in foreseeable future.
About Author
Arijit Chaudhuri, located in Navi Mumbai, petroleum geologist by profession. Also interested in issues concerning pollution, climate change and fast depleting groundwater reserves.Traveling, reading, writing articles, composing rhymes and recitation are his hobbies.
References:
India – age distribution 2020 | Statista.com
India’s got the innovations, now just scale ’em up (indiatimes.com)
‘Forget Dubai, Most West Asian States Are Weak and Violent’: Talmiz Ahmad (thewire.in)
Explained: Gap between Skill India goals and current status | The Financial Express
Overpopulation in India: Population vs food production capability – MAHB (stanford.edu)
India at a glance | FAO in India | Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2022/05/14/india-is-likely-to-be-the-worlds-fastest-growing-big-economy-this-year
India has seen technology waves coke and gone one by one. Indian psyche lacks innovation. We can adapt and maintain and manage things reasonably but cannot create. It needs enormous amount of free thinking in all spheres and a desire to create new and change. It needs forgetting politics and tradition. History binds us and it is unlikely it will happen in next 100 years. We will keep trudging like an injured elephant in the path of history. Thanks to author to bring up the subject.